Compare n' Bet™
Compare n' Bet™
You've got an open bet and the other side of the market is now available at some price. Calculate the hedge stake that locks in equal profit on both outcomes, or just the stake that guarantees you break even regardless of which way the result goes.
Hedging means placing a bet on the opposite side of a wager you already have open, to reduce the variance of the outcome. The most common scenarios are futures that are close to resolving (your team is one win from the championship), parlays with one leg remaining, and live bets where the line has moved favorably since you placed your original wager.
Hedging has a cost. You're paying the sportsbook vig on a second bet to reduce variance on the first. So hedging is never +EV in isolation. The question is whether you value the reduction in variance enough to give up some long-run expected value, and that's a personal tradeoff.
An equal-profit hedge sizes the hedge stake so that you walk away with the exact same profit regardless of which side wins. This is the "lock it in" approach. You guarantee a specific profit and give up any upside.
A break-even hedge sizes the hedge just enough to cover your original stake if the hedge wins. You still get most of the upside if the original bet wins, but you stop risking a net loss. This is the more efficient approach if you're still moderately confident in the original side but want to take some risk off.
You bet $100 on a team at +300 before the season (decimal 4.00). They reach the championship. Now the market has them at -150 as favorites (decimal 1.6667). An equal-profit hedge stakes $240 on the opponent, guaranteeing $60 profit either way. A break-even hedge stakes $150 (just enough to recoup your original $100 if it wins), giving you $150 profit if the original team wins and $0 if they don't.
There's no universally right answer. Professional bettors with large bankrolls usually let it ride, because the fixed payout from a hedge gives up too much long-run value. Recreational bettors with meaningful money on a ticket often hedge because the variance of losing it all is too painful even if the math says to let it ride.
If the hedge cost (the vig you pay on the second bet) would eat up most of the profit, letting it ride is usually the better call. If the hedge locks in a significant guaranteed profit for minimal vig cost, hedging is an easy decision for most people. The numbers in this calculator will tell you where on that spectrum your specific situation falls.
The hedging and middling guide covers the theory in more depth. The bankroll management guide explains when variance reduction is worth its cost. The arbitrage calculator is the hedge calculator's cousin, used when the opposite side is priced well enough to lock in a guaranteed profit rather than a chosen one.
This calculator is for informational purposes only. Compare n' Bet does not provide betting advice, guarantees, or predictions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-522-4700 or visit ncpgambling.org.