Compare n' Bet™
Compare n' Bet™
Soccer is the biggest sport in the world and has the deepest betting markets of any sport. This guide covers the main bet types, how to think about goals, and what separates casual soccer bettors from serious ones.
Unlike most American sports, soccer has three possible outcomes in 90 minutes of play: home win, away win, or draw. Most soccer moneylines are offered in this 3-way format, meaning a bet on one side loses if either of the other two outcomes happens.
This changes the math dramatically. In the NFL, you pick a side and ties (which are rare) usually result in a push. In soccer, ties happen in roughly 25% of games in most major leagues, and a team being "the clear favorite" often still only has a 55-60% implied win chance.
Draw prices typically sit between +200 and +280 in most matches. When two evenly matched teams meet, the draw price often shortens to +220 or so and can be a genuinely attractive bet. Don't dismiss the draw just because it feels like "hedging."
If you think a team will at least not lose (win or draw), you can bet "double chance" at a reduced price. This combines two of the three outcomes into one bet. Double chance for an underdog is a common way to get a slightly better price than the pure moneyline.
Asian handicaps are the closest thing soccer has to a traditional point spread. Instead of 3 possible outcomes, they reduce the game to 2, making it more familiar to bettors coming from American sports.
The handicap is applied to the favorite (or subtracted from the underdog). Common values are 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, and 1.0.
Asian handicaps use quarter-goal values that split your bet across two half-goal lines. A -0.25 line means half your bet is on 0 (draw = refund) and half is on -0.5 (favorite must win outright).
This sounds confusing but is actually elegant. It means you can have a bet that partially refunds if the game is a draw, or wins outright if the favorite wins. The pricing is sharp and the bet type is well-suited to close matches.
For clear favorites, you can take a bigger handicap at better prices. A -1.5 handicap means the favorite has to win by 2 or more goals, which at plus money can be a nice way to back a team you expect to dominate.
Soccer goal totals are almost always posted around 2.5 goals, with occasional lines at 1.5 or 3.5 depending on the matchup.
Different leagues score at very different rates. The English Premier League averages around 2.8 to 3 goals per game in most seasons. La Liga and Serie A tend to be a bit lower (around 2.6). The Bundesliga is typically the highest-scoring major league in Europe, often above 3 goals per game.
Scoring also varies significantly within a league based on the teams. A match between two aggressive attacking teams (say, Liverpool vs Manchester City) might have a total at 3.5. A match between two defensive sides (say, Burnley vs Everton historically) might be at 2.
Just like Asian handicaps, some books offer quarter-goal totals (over 2.25, over 2.75) that split the bet. An over 2.25 means half your bet is on over 2, half on over 2.5. Exactly 2 goals means half refunds, half wins. Exactly 3+ means full win.
These are great for games you think are in a specific scoring range but don't want to commit fully to one side of the line.
Both teams to score is one of the most popular soccer markets. It's simply: will both teams score at least one goal, yes or no?
BTTS prices are typically around -130 to +110 depending on the matchup. BTTS Yes is more likely when both teams have solid attacks and porous defenses. BTTS No is more likely when at least one team plays a lockdown defensive system or has a dominant goalkeeper.
You can usually combine BTTS with a moneyline or total. "Home win and BTTS Yes" is a common bet type that requires the home team to win AND both teams to score. These combined prices are often attractive because they're essentially small parlays priced as single bets.
Soccer starting XIs are released about one hour before kickoff. The lineup reveal is often the biggest single moment in the pre-game betting cycle. When a key player unexpectedly sits out (especially a starting goalkeeper or a star striker), lines can move significantly in those final 60 minutes.
If you want to be sharp, waiting for the team sheet is often worth doing. If you bet early, be prepared for the possibility that your bet's value changes once the lineup is announced.
European teams often play Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday stretches during Champions League and European competition weeks. A team rotating heavily ahead of a midweek match might field a weaker XI than expected. Conversely, a team that doesn't have midweek obligations is fresher than opponents who do.
Always check whether either team had a midweek match before a weekend league fixture. It's one of the most reliable situational edges in soccer.
Soccer is particularly prone to motivation-based line shifts. A team fighting for the league title treats the final 5 games differently from a team already safe in 8th place. A team battling relegation has everything to play for. A team that's already secured qualification for Europe might rotate or play loose.
This is also true for cup competitions. FA Cup fixtures against smaller opposition are often taken less seriously by big clubs than league matches. European finals and knockout legs are taken more seriously than league fixtures the week before.
Heavy rain slows the game and suppresses goal scoring. High winds make long balls and crosses harder, which can affect direct-play teams more than possession-based teams. Snow and extreme cold usually mean fewer goals.
The effect is smaller in soccer than in American sports, but it exists and can nudge a total by 0.25 to 0.5 goals in extreme weather.
The most bet-on soccer league in the world. Lines are sharp, the market is efficient, and injury news tends to be priced in quickly. Value is hardest to find here but the volume of matches makes it worthwhile for disciplined bettors.
Lower scoring on average than the Premier League, with more defensive systems in place. Home advantage in La Liga is historically strong, particularly at certain stadiums (Atletico's Metropolitano, Real Betis's Villamarin).
The highest-scoring of the major European leagues. Totals are typically set higher. Bundesliga teams are known for pressing-heavy, high-tempo play that produces lots of shots and lots of goals at both ends.
The most tactically sophisticated major league and historically the most defensive. Low-scoring affairs are common. Under bets have historically fared well in Serie A, though this has evened out in recent years.
Single-leg Champions League matches tend to be tighter than league games. Two-legged ties introduce aggregate scoring dynamics (a team down 2-0 in a return leg will play very aggressively, opening up space for goals at both ends). Knockout rounds produce distinct betting dynamics that don't exist in league play.
The domestic American league has unique scheduling (regular season plus playoffs), travel demands, and rosters with both experienced internationals and developing players. MLS lines are softer than European leagues on average because fewer sharp bettors track it closely.
Soccer props are less developed than NBA or NFL props in most US books, but they're growing. The main markets are:
A bet that a specific player scores at least one goal in the match. Priced based on the player's role (striker, winger, midfielder), the team's expected goals, and the matchup.
Casual bettors often overrate the chance of a star player scoring in a given match. A top striker playing against a good defense might only score in 40-45% of his matches. Prices reflecting that will often look "too long."
These props are driven by the player's role, their team's attacking style, and the opponent's defense. Wingers and strikers on possession-heavy teams tend to put up the highest shot totals.
Niche but real markets. Cards are driven by referee tendencies (some refs give out cards at much higher rates than others) and by the teams' playing styles. Corners are driven by possession and attacking volume.
Referee appointments are usually public a day or two before the match. If you're betting cards, knowing the referee's average cards per match is a valuable piece of info.
With soccer matches happening across dozens of leagues every week, the volume of available bets is enormous. That creates real variance between books. One book might have a total at 2.5 while another has it at 2.75. That quarter-goal difference meaningfully changes your expected value.
Compare n' Bet tracks soccer odds across every supported book, which lets you find the best available price on the match and market you're interested in. For soccer bettors especially, consistent line shopping is one of the highest-value habits you can build.
Soccer is a deep, rewarding sport to bet once you understand the market structure. The 3-way moneyline, Asian handicaps, and the wealth of goal-based markets give you more angles than most American sports. The variance is high, but the markets are less sharp than the NFL in most cases, which creates edges for people willing to do their homework.
Watch lineups, respect the draw, understand each league's scoring environment, and line shop every time. Those habits will put you ahead of most casual soccer bettors by a wide margin.
This guide is for informational purposes only. Compare n' Bet does not offer gambling advice or predictions. Statistical trends described in this guide are historical and do not guarantee future results. Please gamble responsibly.